Forecasting The Impact of an Increase in Regency Minimum Wages (UMK) on The Open Unemployment Rates (TPT) in Sidoarjo Regency in 2024–2030
Peramalan Dampak Kenaikan Upah Minimum Kabupaten/Kota (UMK) Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) di Kabupaten Sidoarjo Tahun 2024–2030
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21070/ups.6048Keywords:
Inflation, Economic Growth, Minimum Wage, Open Unemployment, ARIMAAbstract
The increase in the minimum wage for Sidoarjo Regency from 2013 to 2023 shows a sharp increase. This makes open unemployment even higher and places Sidoarjo Regency in first place with the highest number of unemployed in East Java. If the minimum wage in Sidoarjo Regency experiences a very significant increase in the following years, more companies will go bankrupt or even move outside Sidoarjo Regency to prevent greater losses, resulting in more unemployment in Sidoarjo Regency. This research aims to determine the impact of forecasting increases in the minimum wage on open unemployment in Sidoarjo Regency every year 2024 to 2030. This research uses the ARIMA (0,1,0) model, which is then analyzed using IBM SPSS Statistics 25 version. The research results show that open unemployment in Sidoarjo Regency over the next 6 (six) years is likely to increase by 0.43% every year. This happens because of the increase in the minimum wage which tends to get higher every year.
Downloads
References
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur, “Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) Menurut Kabupaten/Kota,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://jatim.bps.go.id/indicator/6/54/2/tingkat-pengangguran-terbuka-tpt-menurut-kabupaten-kota.html. [Accessed: Mar. 2, 2024].
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur, “Indikator Inflasi Menurut Provinsi,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://jatim.bps.go.id/indicator/3/46/1/inflasi-tahun-ke-tahun-y-o-y-.html. [Accessed: May 28, 2024].
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur, “Indikator Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Menurut Kabupaten/Kota,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://jatim.bps.go.id/indicator/162/527/1/-seri-2010-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-menurut-kabupaten-kota.html. [Accessed: May 28, 2024].
A. Bhagaskara, M. I. Herdiyansyah, M. Afandi, and R. Y. Christie, “Kondisi Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Akibat Kenaikkan Upah Minimum,” Inovasi, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 157-166, 2020.
G. J. Borjas, Labor Economics. New York: McGraw Hill, 2013.
Dinas Komunikasi dan Informatika Kabupaten Sidoarjo, “Indikator Ekonomi Kabupaten Sidoarjo Tahun 2022,” 2022.
Dinas Komunikasi dan Informatika Kabupaten Sidoarjo, “Laporan Akhir: Analisa Dampak Kenaikan Upah Minimum Kabupaten (UMK) Terhadap Pertumbuhan Perusahaan di Kabupaten Sidoarjo Tahun 2022,” 2022.
R. S. Effendy, “Pengaruh Upah Minimum Terhadap Pengurangan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Indonesia,” Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi - Fokus Ekonomi, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 105-124, Jun. 2019.
I. Ghozali, Aplikasi Analisis Multivariete SPSS 23. Semarang: Universitas Diponegoro, 2016.
J. Harlan, “Analisis Regresi Linear,” Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 2018.
R. Hussmanns, F. Mehran, and V. Varma, Surveys Of Economically Active Population, Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment: An ILO Manual On Concepts And Methods. Geneva: ILO, 1990.
J. L. Panjawa and D. Soebagiyo, “Efek Peningkatan Upah Minimum Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran,” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 48-54, 2014.
D. Kurniawan, “Regresi Linier (Linear Regression),” Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2008.
N. G. Mankiw, Makro Ekonomi. Jakarta: Erlangga, 2012.
P. A. Pamungkas and A. Suman, “Pengaruh Upah Minimum Terhadap Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan di Indonesia Tahun 2011-2016,” Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB UB, vol. 5, no. 2, 2017.
B. Patoppoi, “Ratusan Perusahaan Sidoarjo Bangkrut, Disnaker Pastikan Bantu Mediasi Karyawan Terdampak,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.suarasurabaya.net/radio/?amp. [Accessed: Mar. 2, 2024].
B. R. W. Putra and S. R. Faridatussalam, “Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Eks Karesidenan Surakarta Periode 2017-2021,” Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 584-590, 2023.
D. Setiawan, “Tertekan UMK 2023, Apindo Sidoarjo Wacanakan Pengurangan Karyawan,” 2023. [Online]. Available: https://harianbhirawa.co.id/tertekan-umk-2023-apindo-sidoarjo-wacanakan-pengurangan-karyawan/. [Accessed: Mar. 2, 2024].
Sugiyono, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D. Bandung: Alfabeta, 2008.
N. Syafitria et al., “Pemodelan Pergerakan Harga Saham Bakrie Menggunakan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average),” Indonesian Journal of Applied Mathematics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 19-24, 2020.
W. Syafitri, “Analisis Determinan Produktivitas dan Upah pada Sektor Manufaktur Indonesia,” Tema, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 94-108, 2002.
P. M. Todaro, Pembangunan Ekonomi. Jakarta: Erlangga, 2011.
W. W. S. Wei, Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods, 2nd ed. New York: Pearson Education, 2006.
Downloads
Additional Files
Posted
License
Copyright (c) 2024 UMSIDA Preprints Server
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
