Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control of Impala Cap Bunga Kapas Crackers at UD Sumber Agung Using Moving Average and Reorder Point Methods
Peramalan dan Pengendalian Persediaan Kerupuk Impala Cap Bunga Kapas di UD Sumber Agung Menggunakan Metode Moving Average dan Reorder Point
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21070/ups.12028Keywords:
Inventory Management, Simple Moving Average, Reorder Point, Safety Stock, ForecastingAbstract
Inventory management of Impala Cap Bunga Kapas crackers at UD Sumber Agung is still based on estimates and experience, which may lead to overstock and stockout. This study aims to apply the Simple Moving Average (SMA) method to forecast inventory requirements and the Reorder Point (ROP) method to determine the appropriate time for reordering. This study uses a quantitative approach with historical sales data for three product sizes, namely 9 cm, 7 cm, and 3 cm, covering the period from August 2024 to February 2026. The results show that the SMA method can be used to estimate inventory requirements, with the best forecasting period varying for each product size based on the MAE value. Furthermore, the application of ROP and safety stock with a 95% service level provides reorder thresholds adjusted to the usage characteristics of each product. Thus, the combination of SMA and ROP can support more systematic inventory control, reduce the risk of stock shortages and excess inventory, and improve procurement efficiency.
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